Bitcoin near $84K shows a repeatable bear-market pattern: two-week rallies, a lower low, and a 1,062-day cycle shaping risk and timing for risk-aware traders.
Tomi Š.
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Bitcoin Near $84K: Pattern Signals Bear Market Timing and Risk
Bitcoin sits near $84,000, but the story isn’t about one price level. It’s about a repeating pattern and the bigger context it sits in. The transcript outlines a familiar cycle: a trough, about a two-week rally, then a pullback to a lower low, followed by another rally. This pattern has shown up several times since 2021 and offers a clear lens on what’s happening now. Understanding why it matters goes beyond a headline figure. It helps explain how traders mark support zones, where risk is higher, and what conditions could tilt the market back toward a sustained uptrend.
To frame the moment, the author sees a bear market, but with a twist. The cycle length—the time from the low to the next benchmark—has hovered around 1,062 days in this cycle, about 1,059 days in the last one, and around 1,062 days in the one before that. That puts the current cycle in line with earlier phases, supporting the bear-market label. Yet sentiment this time around is different: apathy rather than the euphoria that accompanied 2021 and 2017. That shift matters because it changes how investors gauge risk and how confident they are about a lasting, broad-based rally.
On the price action side, this bear market looks different because Bitcoin’s drop from the peak has been smaller than in every prior bear that began in the fourth quarter after the halving. This invites careful comparisons with past episodes. The 2019 intermediate bear market, for instance, topped on apathy just before the Fed moved on rates and the end of quantitative tightening. The pattern then unfolded with a June low, a sweep of that low in October, a counter-trend rally above the 20-week moving average, and then a slightly lower low before a breakout that carried Bitcoin through the pandemic recession. Even though the drop was substantial (about 53–54%), the sequence mattered: a sweep of the low helped set up the rally. The 2022 bear market diverged in its timing of the sweep, with the counter-trend rally above the 20-week SMA coming briefly before the low was swept.
So, where does that leave the near term? Right now, the setup is two weeks up, then back down, then up again. The question is whether the current low will be a touch lower or a higher low before the rally toward the bull market support band. The analyst assigns probabilities to the outcome: roughly a 60% chance of sweeping the low, about a 40% chance of finding a low slightly above the prior one. Based on the 2019 vs. 2022 playbook, sweeping the low and dipping a bit below it looks more likely in the near term.
There is a familiar MicroStrategy pattern—lows tend to be followed by a sweep and then a rally toward the bull market support band—that’s showing up again here. Many traders are watching for confirmation, but it hasn’t happened yet. Given the near-term setup, a bit of fading price action for the rest of this week and into the next is a reasonable expectation.
Technical levels matter, with several moving averages serving as waypoints for the next moves. The 20-week moving average (SMA) is a reference from the 2019 pattern, where the rally followed a sweep above it. In 2022 the counter-trend rally began even before a sweep of the low. The 50-week moving average is a key threshold; a break below the 50-week could push the cycle toward the 100-week and then the 200 EMA. The 200 EMA itself is described as a major resistance or support to test, with 2019 seeing Bitcoin reach it. Market participants watch the bull market support band—the price zone that many consider a critical area for a renewed bull run—when patterns unfold favorably.
Possible futures and their likelihoods are laid out with several scenarios:
Beyond Bitcoin itself there is macro and policy context that matters for timing and risk. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise rates soon. The belief is that a rate hike may press prices lower in the near term, but the actual low after a BOJ rate rise could occur a week later or longer. In 2024, the BOJ raised rates in late July, yet Bitcoin did not find its low until early August. The transmission of macro policy to crypto prices tends to lag, often until broader market indexes like the S&P 500 start to weaken and liquidity conditions tighten. Jerome Powell’s replacement and other policy shifts are sometimes cited as catalysts, but policy moves tend to filter through slowly.
When looking at broader markets, cross-market patterns are used as informal analogies rather than predictive rules. Nvidia has shown a pattern where a low is followed by a slightly higher high, then a higher high, a slightly lower low, and finally a new all-time high. Alphabet (Google) also serves as a pattern reference: high, higher high, low, lower low, then a sweep of the low followed by a rally. If Bitcoin sweeps the low, it could present a good risk opportunity, depending on which historical analogue it most closely resembles at the moment.
Altcoins and alt-season are part of the discussion as well. There remains bullish sentiment around altcoins and the potential for alt-season. Some observers expect a surge in early 2026, potentially aligning with a macro lower high for Bitcoin and a rally into that year toward the bull market band. If the four-year cycle remains intact, a macro lower high into a lower low in the summer could be followed by another drop to convince late-cycle bulls that we are still in a bear market. If patterns resemble 2019, a macro lower high could be followed by one more lower low before the bull market resumes, with a sweep back up followed by a drop to 60–70k and a test of the 200 EMA possible. The caveat remains: even if a sweep leads toward a new cycle, there is a real risk that a new all-time high is not reached before another roll over.
Bear-market timing remains uncertain but plausible. A bear market lasting about a year could push into October, while a shorter duration like the 2019 bear market—around six months—is also possible. The transcript cites MicroStrategy’s bear-market experience, lasting about 98 weeks from top to low, as a reference point that could align with an October 2026 timeline. That alignment would fit with the idea that macro cycles and major players’ price histories help shape what’s expected next.
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Key names and references recur throughout this discussion. Bitcoin remains the focal asset. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) figures into timing and sentiment as rate moves tend to accompany pattern shifts. Nvidia and Alphabet (Google) serve as cross-market analogies that some traders use to gauge possible outcomes. MicroStrategy is highlighted as an example of a company whose price patterns have at times foreshadowed broader Bitcoin cycles. Jerome Powell is referenced as a potential catalyst, while the S&P 500 serves as the macro backdrop for liquidity and risk appetite.
If you want to dig deeper into the fundamentals and tracking of Bitcoin, you can explore the primary source for Bitcoin’s design and its original white paper, as well as current market data. For example, the Bitcoin project site and white paper are foundational resources, and you can watch live price data on widely used trackers. The Bitcoin network also has a number of reliable data portals and market analytics sites you can use to verify price movements and to cross-check market cycles:
Looking ahead, the path for Bitcoin remains uncertain in the near term but guided by identifiable patterns from the last few cycles. The immediate question is whether the low is swept or not, and how price action behaves around key moving averages like the 50-week and 200 EMA. Longer-term scenarios hinge on whether the market can sustain a breakout in the face of macro headwinds and policy shifts that typically play out with a lag. Altcoins may enjoy temporary strength even if BTC stays range-bound, but the broader question is whether the next major move will come from renewed belief in a new cycle or from a caution-driven consolidation that builds a base for the next leg higher. The takeaway is to watch how pattern dynamics, macro signals, and liquidity interplay, while staying mindful of the risks and uncertainty that come with bear-market phases.